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The Watchlist · The private-markets desk

Where we'd put infra money.

Early-stage AI-infrastructure companies we track as investment candidates: the layer the models cannot run without. Each one carries a thesis and the single thing that would prove it wrong. Watch-only: we hold nothing here, and none of this is advice to buy.

14 names · updated June 22, 2026. The companion to The Call and The Tape: a claim on the table, settled in the open.

We read the AI buildout from the constraint side. The model layer takes the headlines and most of the money, and it is also where the fight is hardest: open weights drift toward parity, prices keep falling, and this quarter's lead is next quarter's commodity. The durable margin sits one layer down, in what a model cannot run without. Power to switch it on. Silicon that does more work per watt. The plumbing that moves the data and hands an agent the open web.

Everything on this list answers a named bottleneck instead of decorating someone else's platform. Each one holds an edge a hyperscaler cannot copy with a checkbook by Friday. And each has staked a claim we can check later: a ship date, a customer, a number. Where the price already assumes everything goes right, we say so.

These names are private and early. Most first-time chip teams miss their first tape-out, a few of the valuations below are paying for a résumé more than a product, and some of these will simply fail. So this is a list we watch, not a fund we run: we hold nothing, and none of it is advice to buy. We publish the case and the thing that would sink it, then keep score in the open, the way we do with the Call and the Tape.

1A named bottleneck. Power, silicon efficiency, data movement, or an agent's reach into the open web. A feature bolted onto someone else's platform does not qualify.
2An edge that holds. Something a hyperscaler cannot reproduce with a checkbook and a single quarter.
3A claim we can check. A ship date, a named customer, or a number we can hold the company to later.
Power & siting

Power and siting: the binding constraint

The grid is the gate now. A site can sign for GPUs in a quarter and then wait years for the power to run them. The most valuable thing in the whole buildout is a megawatt that shows up early, or a place to compute that skips the queue.

GridCARE

Conviction · High

Physics-based software that finds unused capacity on today's grid and brings data-center megawatts online years ahead of a new interconnect.

Series A/$64M (May 2026)/Menlo Park, CA
Backers Sutter Hill Ventures John Doerr National Grid Partners Future Energy Ventures Emerson Collective Stanford

A data center can take delivery of GPUs in a quarter and then wait three to seven years for the grid connection that powers them. GridCARE argues the capacity often already exists, idle at the wrong hours and the wrong substations, and that the real work is finding it. Its Energize platform models the physical grid to locate that headroom and sells speed to power.

The proof is specific. A partnership with a utility in Hillsboro, Oregon clears a path the company puts at more than 400 MW, with the first 80 MW arriving in 2026. Sutter Hill led the round, an original Nvidia backer, and National Grid's venture arm joined. That cap table suggests utilities themselves take the model seriously.

The edgeIt sells time. Hundreds of megawatts years early is worth more to a builder than any efficiency gain downstream, and the modeling is the piece rivals cannot quickly clone.
What would change our mindWatch Hillsboro. If the first 80 MW slips past 2026, or utilities treat the platform as a curiosity instead of wiring it into how they grant interconnections, the category was a feature.
GridCARE ↗

Orbital

Conviction · Speculative

Solar-powered AI compute satellites in low Earth orbit, where sunlight is constant and the vacuum is a free heat sink.

Pre-seed/$5M (Jun 2026)/Los Angeles, CA
Backers a16z Speedrun Basis Set Antler Anti Fund others

If the grid is the gate, the wildest way through is to leave the grid behind. Orbital wants to run AI inference in low Earth orbit, where the sun never sets and the cold of space does the cooling. No interconnection queue, no water, no land fight. The founder is Euwyn Poon, who co-founded the scooter company Spin and sold it to Ford in 2018.

Temper it. This is the longest shot on the page by a wide margin. Launch cost, radiation, and on-orbit servicing are all unsolved at scale, and a $5 million pre-seed from a16z's Speedrun buys a single demonstrator rather than a data center. The first mission, Pathfinder, is slated to fly a hosted GPU payload on a Falcon 9 rideshare in 2027.

The edgeIf launch prices keep falling, orbit is the only site that escapes the power queue and the cooling bill at once. A credible founder and a16z money make the first demo worth a look.
What would change our mindPathfinder flies in 2027. If it slips, or comes back with power and thermal numbers that lose to a terrestrial solar farm, this stays a thought experiment.
Orbital ↗
Silicon & interconnect

Silicon and interconnect past the GPU

Inference runs the bill now, and inference stalls on three things: energy, the trip weights take to reach the math, and the wiring between chips. These companies are building the hardware that comes after the GPU. Photonic, in-memory, analog, or just better connected. Long timelines, big payoffs, and a real chance any one of them never ships.

Fractile

Conviction · High, within speculative silicon

In-memory compute that runs inference where the weights already sit, claiming 100x the speed of a GPU at a tenth the cost.

Series B/$220M (May 2026)/~$1B/London & Bristol, UK
Backers Accel Factorial Funds Founders Fund

Inference spends much of its time and energy shuttling weights between memory and the processor. Fractile builds chips that do the math inside the memory itself, which is where its claim of running frontier models up to 100 times faster and 10 times cheaper comes from. Walter Goodwin founded it out of Oxford in 2022; this round pushed it into the unicorn bracket.

Forget the raise for a second; the buyer is the tell. Anthropic is reported to be in early talks to purchase Fractile's chips once they ship. A frontier lab shopping for inference silicon outside Nvidia is the demand this whole category is counting on, and a named customer before first silicon almost never happens.

The edgeA reported frontier-lab buyer before the hardware exists. In a field full of renderings, that is the scarce thing.
What would change our mindSilicon is due in 2027. If the Anthropic talks fade with no design-win to replace them, or first chips miss 2027, the billion-dollar price ran ahead of the product.
Fractile ↗

Neurophos

Conviction · Medium, long fuse

Photonic inference chips built on a metamaterial optical modulator shrunk about 10,000x, the step that could make dense optical compute manufacturable.

Series A/$110M (Jan 2026)/oversubscribed; ~$118M total/Austin, TX
Backers Gates Frontier M12 (Microsoft) Carbon Direct Capital Aramco Ventures Bosch Ventures

Photonic computing has been five years away for a decade, because the optical parts were too big to pack tightly. Neurophos, spun out of Duke metamaterials research, says it shrank the optical modulator by roughly 10,000 times. That is enough to put on the order of a million optical elements on a single die and make the approach buildable. When it works, inference moves through the chip at light speed for a fraction of the energy.

The hard, ownable piece is the modulator itself; the packaging around it is the easy part. Gates Frontier led the $110 million round and Microsoft's M12 joined, the kind of patient money that funds a chip on a 2028 horizon. The team carries veterans from Nvidia, Intel, AMD, and Lightmatter.

The edgeA specific device-level breakthrough rather than a systems-integration story, funded by people who underwrite decade-long silicon.
What would change our mindProduction is mid-2028 on Neurophos's own clock. A dense working demo before then keeps it alive; another slip drops it into the long graveyard of photonics startups.
Neurophos ↗

Unconventional AI

Conviction · Speculative, highest variance here

Naveen Rao's brain-inspired, analog-leaning compute aimed at the power wall, funded by a record $475M seed at a $4.5B valuation.

Seed/$475M (Dec 2025)/$4.5B/Bay Area, CA
Backers Andreessen Horowitz Lightspeed Lux Capital DCVC Jeff Bezos

Read this one as a founder purchase first. Naveen Rao built Nervana, which Intel bought for $350 million, then MosaicML, which Databricks bought for $1.3 billion. A $475 million seed at a $4.5 billion valuation for a two-month-old company, with Rao adding $10 million of his own, is the market pricing that record against the energy wall.

The technology is unproven. That is the honest description of pre-product analog silicon. The case is that the person who industrialized two earlier compute shifts has earned a third look, and the round gives him a decade of tape-outs to find it before revenue. a16z and Lightspeed co-led; Lux, DCVC, and Jeff Bezos are in.

The edgeCapital depth, and a founder who has shipped and sold silicon-adjacent companies twice. Almost no seed team can fund the runway analog hardware needs.
What would change our mindA seed this large is priced for perfection. No working analog demonstrator inside roughly two years, or a quiet retreat to digital, and the round paid for a reputation.
Unconventional AI ↗

LightSpeed Photonics

Conviction · Speculative

Optical interconnects using short-wavelength lasers, claiming 4x the speed at half the power in a twentieth of the footprint.

Pre-Series A/$6.5M (Nov 2025)/~$8.5M raised incl. grants/Bangalore, India
Backers pi Ventures 500 Global Indian Accelerator 8X Ventures Java Capital

Inside the rack, copper is running out of room: every doubling of bandwidth burns more power than the last. LightSpeed Photonics, founded in Bangalore in 2021, builds optical interconnects it says move data four times faster, at half the power, in a twentieth of the space. As clusters grow to tens of thousands of GPUs, the links between chips choke throughput as badly as the chips do.

pi Ventures led the $6.5 million pre-Series A, with about $8.5 million raised so far including grants. This is component-level deep tech that every hyperscaler needs and few early teams attempt. The pilots that count are the ones with OEM and ODM partners; those turn a lab number into a product.

The edgeA bottleneck every large cluster feels, attacked at the component level where few startups operate.
What would change our mindThe performance figures are the company's own and pre-commercial. With no independent pilot result and no OEM design-in by late 2026, it stays a lab claim.
LightSpeed Photonics ↗
Compute

Compute, rented smarter

The cheapest way to lean against Nvidia's pricing power is to fund the credible alternative and the software that routes around it. Two layers do the work: the supercloud that sits above the metal, and the idle capacity already powered on and going to waste. Revenue is the filter here; slideware does not make the list.

TensorWave

Conviction · Medium

An AMD-powered AI cloud at a reported $100M-plus revenue run-rate, the merchant alternative to Nvidia-only compute.

Series A/$100M (May 2025)/~$147M total raised/Las Vegas, NV
Backers Magnetar AMD Ventures Prosperity7 Nexus Venture Partners Maverick Silicon

The cleanest way to lean against Nvidia's pricing power is to fund the one other accelerator a serious lab will actually run. TensorWave operates one of the largest liquid-cooled AMD Instinct fleets, more than 8,000 MI325X parts, and reports a $100 million-plus run-rate growing 20x year over year. AMD's own venture arm co-led the round, which means the chipmaker is underwriting its cloud channel.

This is one of the rare infrastructure startups already at a nine-figure run-rate instead of a pitch deck. If AMD keeps narrowing the software gap to CUDA, TensorWave is positioned to sell the supply that gap frees up.

The edgeAligned with AMD at the cap table and in the rack, and carrying revenue most rivals can only forecast.
What would change our mindThe model is capex-heavy, thin-margin, and long a single vendor. If AMD's inference software stalls, or neocloud rental margins fall faster than utilization climbs, the growth is renting dollars at a loss.
TensorWave ↗

Parasail

Conviction · Medium

A pay-per-token inference supercloud that routes each job to the cheapest endpoint clearing its latency bar, moving 500 billion-plus tokens a day.

Series A/$32M (Apr 2026)/~$42M total raised/United States
Backers Touring Capital Kindred Ventures Samsung NEXT Flume Ventures Banyan Ventures

As agents multiply, buyers stop caring which GPU runs a model and start caring about price per token and time to first call. Parasail abstracts a fabric of compute and sends each job to the cheapest endpoint that still clears the latency bar, billed per token, live in minutes. Moving more than 500 billion tokens a day about a year after launch says the demand for that abstraction is real.

Sitting above the metal keeps Parasail off the hook for any single chip, and the agent wave is exactly the workload that makes token counts explode. The open question is margin: can the routing layer hold its cut while the labs squeeze from above and the neoclouds from below.

The edgeHardware-agnostic and pointed at the fastest-growing workload in AI, with 30% month-over-month revenue already booked.
What would change our mindRouting gets squeezed on both sides: the labs' own APIs underneath, the neoclouds on top. If gross margin cannot hold as volume grows, this is a reseller on thin spread.
Parasail ↗

Lilac

Conviction · Medium, early

A marketplace that routes inference onto idle GPUs and pays their owners, OpenAI-compatible and billed per token.

Seed (YC S25)/Y Combinator, Summer 2025/United States
Backers Y Combinator

Most GPU clusters run at 30 to 50 percent utilization, which is paid-for hardware sitting dark. Lilac, a Y Combinator company from the summer 2025 batch, routes inference onto that idle capacity and pays the owner for it. The interface is OpenAI-compatible, the billing is per token, and the plumbing is Kubernetes-native. It is the supply-side mirror of Parasail's demand-side routing.

The founders, Ryan and Lucas Ewing, both come out of cloud infrastructure. Their pitch turns a stranded asset into supply, and OpenAI compatibility makes adoption a config change rather than a rewrite. Whether it works comes down to liquidity and reliability.

The edgeIt converts idle, already-powered GPUs into sellable capacity, and OpenAI compatibility drops the switching cost close to zero.
What would change our mindA marketplace lives or dies on liquidity and uptime. If Lilac cannot promise latency on borrowed GPUs, serious inference stays on dedicated capacity and this stays a discount tier.
Lilac ↗
Data & agents

The data and agent layer

A model is dead weight without fast data and a live connection to the web. This is the plumbing the agent era runs on: storage that keeps pace with the GPUs, and an open web made legible to machines that were never its intended readers.

Parallel Web Systems

Conviction · Medium-high

Search and research APIs that let agents read and act on the open web reliably, from Parag Agrawal, now valued at $2 billion.

Series B/$100M Series B (Apr 2026); ~$230M total/$2B/Palo Alto, CA
Backers Sequoia Kleiner Perkins Index Ventures Khosla Ventures Spark Capital

An agent is only as good as its reach into the live web, and the web was built for human eyes rather than API calls. Parallel sells the search and research APIs that let an agent read, reason over, and act on web data. Parag Agrawal, the former Twitter CEO, founded it; Clay, Harvey, Notion, and Opendoor are customers, and the company reports more than 100,000 developers.

A valuation that tripled to $2 billion in five months, with Sequoia leading the Series B, says investors think the agent layer needs its own infrastructure company. The sharper move is the plan to pay publishers when agents use their work. That is the unsolved economics of the agent era, and if Parallel makes it a standard it owns a toll booth.

The edgeA category-defining founder, fast enterprise traction, and a real attempt at the agent-to-publisher payment problem no one else has cracked.
What would change our mindThe labs are building their own browsing and retrieval. If web access for agents folds into the model APIs as a commodity, the $2 billion price needs a moat Parallel has not yet shown.
Parallel Web Systems ↗

Tigris Data

Conviction · Medium

Globally distributed, S3-compatible object storage built for how AI actually reads data: billions of tiny files at low latency.

Series A/$25M (Oct 2025)/Sunnyvale, CA
Backers Spark Capital Andreessen Horowitz

AI broke the assumptions object storage was built on: billions of tiny files like embeddings and shards, read at latencies S3 was never tuned for, plus egress fees that punish moving data to wherever the GPUs are. Tigris is a globally distributed store that speaks the S3 API and is built for that access pattern. It has more than 4,000 customers and is expanding from the US into London, Frankfurt, and Singapore.

Compatibility is the wedge. Code written for Amazon S3 runs on Tigris unchanged, so the switching cost rounds to zero, and the offer underneath is lower latency plus relief from the cloud's most profitable charge. Spark Capital led the $25 million round, with a16z returning.

The edgeDrop-in S3 compatibility, aimed squarely at egress fees, the cloud's stickiest lock-in.
What would change our mindStorage is a scale game with brutal economics. If the hyperscalers cut egress fees or ship their own AI-tier object store, the price umbrella Tigris sells under closes.
Tigris Data ↗

Archil

Conviction · Medium

Mounts an S3 bucket as a POSIX filesystem that reads like a fast local disk, so GPUs stop waiting on downloads.

Seed/$6.7M/San Francisco, CA
Backers Felicis Y Combinator Peak XV General Catalyst

GPUs sit idle while data copies down from object storage. Archil, formerly Regatta Storage, mounts an S3 bucket as a POSIX filesystem that behaves like a local disk, so training and inference start before the download finishes. Full POSIX support means no code changes, the same near-zero switching cost that makes storage wedges work. The founder ran Amazon's Elastic File System and Netflix's cloud storage, the exact résumé this problem wants.

Felicis led the $6.7 million seed, with Y Combinator in and angels including Modal's Erik Bernhardsson and a former AWS storage lead. The risk lives next door to the wedge: this is close to something AWS could ship as a feature.

The edgeIt removes a wait every AI team feels, with no rewrite, built by the person who shipped the incumbent product.
What would change our mindThis sits close to a feature AWS already half-offers. If EFS or another hyperscaler adds S3-backed POSIX caching, the wedge narrows fast.
Archil ↗
Enabling tools

The enabling tools

Two of the hardest jobs in AI still take a rare team and years of work: designing custom silicon, and turning a general model into a cheaper specialist. These companies fold that work into software. The wedge is real. The danger is that an incumbent ships the same button next quarter.

Architect Labs

Conviction · Medium

An AI system that designs and verifies custom chips end to end, aiming to collapse an ASIC timeline from years to weeks.

Seed/$24M (Jun 2026)/Palo Alto, CA
Backers Kindred Ventures TQ Ventures Race Capital Together Fund Jeff Dean (angel)

Custom silicon is the obvious hedge against renting Nvidia, and it still takes a large team and several years to tape out an ASIC. Architect Labs, out of stealth in June 2026, is building an AI system that designs and verifies a chip end to end. The founders are Ebrahim Hussain, who worked on silicon at Apple and Tesla, and Aaditya Subedi, a former Harvard researcher in code verification.

The cap table is the loudest signal here. Kindred Ventures led the $24 million seed, and the angels include Google's Jeff Dean, OpenAI's Lukasz Kaiser, Perplexity's Aravind Srinivas, and the RISC pioneer Kunle Olukotun. Those are the people who would know whether AI-designed silicon is real.

The edgeIf it works, it opens custom silicon, long the preserve of a few giants, to everyone else, and it rides the custom-chip boom without being long any single design.
What would change our mindVerification, not layout, is where chip projects die. If Architect cannot show a verified, taped-out design from its system within about two years, it is an LLM wrapped in EDA marketing.

Osmosis

Conviction · Speculative

A post-training platform for reinforcement fine-tuning that turns a base model into a cheaper, faster specialist.

Seed (YC W25)/Y Combinator, Winter 2025/San Francisco, CA
Backers Y Combinator

The next gains for many agents come less from a bigger base model than from teaching a smaller one your specific task. Osmosis, a Y Combinator company from the winter 2025 batch, runs the post-training: reinforcement fine-tuning with methods like GRPO and DAPO and multi-turn tool training, without the team standing up its own RL infrastructure. The output is a task-specific model that beats the foundation model on cost and latency.

As inference bills climb, a cheaper specialized model is a direct line to margin, which is the demand Osmosis is chasing. The CEO sold a gaming startup before this; the CTO led real-time recommendations at TikTok. The threat is plain: the big labs are folding reinforcement fine-tuning into their own platforms.

The edgeReinforcement fine-tuning is hard to operate, and packaging it is a genuine wedge as teams chase cheaper task models.
What would change our mindThe labs are pushing reinforcement fine-tuning into their own APIs. If it becomes a button on a foundation-model platform, an independent tool needs results the incumbents cannot match.
Osmosis ↗
Not investment advice. The Watchlist is published opinion and analysis, not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or to invest in any company. These are private, early-stage companies; we hold no positions and have no relationship with them. Funding figures were checked against primary reporting at time of writing and move fast. Do your own research and consult a qualified professional before making any decision.